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光伏与储能行业深度研究报告

返回列表 来源: 全球光伏 发布日期: 2022.08.03 浏览次数:

一、硅料:新增产能陆续释放,盈利依然强劲


1.1 2022年新增产能陆续释放,有效供给超280GW


2022年上半年新增产能释放,对应硅料总供给280GW+:2021年无新增产能释放,在硅片1kg出158片数 (片)68片,转换效率在23%、单瓦硅耗3g/W的情况下,我们测算硅料总供给在190GW(实际生产中可 能会有一定损耗)。


1.2 五寡头格局,通威有望率先突围


2020年疫情影响下,硅料价格持续下跌,小厂商亏损严重逐渐退出竞争, 行业形成保利协鑫、通威、新特、大全新能源、东方希望五家寡头垄断格局。通威硅料扩产节奏领先同业, 在2021年底投产8万吨产能,同时与下游硅片巨头隆基、一体化厂商天合光能签订长单保证销售,我们预计到2022年通威率先突围,市占率接近30%。


1.3 硅料上涨至近10年新高,预计2022年均价15万左右


2022年硅料供给充分后价格将理性回落,我们预计2022年均价15万左右:2020Q3以来,硅料涨价周期 开启,供需持续紧缺,年后价格持续上涨,2021年11月已至27万元/吨,硅料近期上涨至近10年新高,龙 头通威持续受益,2021年全年硅料供需紧平衡,价格维持高位。


1.4 颗粒硅逐步被下游验证,量产开始


颗粒硅优势:1)生产能耗大幅降低:能耗为20度电,较西门子法降低2/3,单吨成本节约0.9万元,未来 若考虑碳税则优势更大;2)单位投资额下降:每万吨投资额7亿元(西门子法10亿元),单吨折旧成本 节约0.15万元;3)设备连续生产,后续可配合硅片厂实现CCZ,提高生产效率。


二、硅片:2022年竞争激烈,龙头盈利韧性强


2.1 行业产能过剩,我们预计2022年竞争激烈,硅片盈利下行


高盈利推动大扩产,产能过剩问题逐渐显现:受价格坚挺&成本下降的双重影响,硅片盈利性逐步攀升, 推动行业大幅扩产。2019年底至2021年,单晶硅片进入新一轮产能周期,我们测算龙头企业硅片产能达到 342GW,2022年底达到484.5GW。


2.2 硅片双龙头格局,新兴龙头加速追赶


预计2021年双寡头占据61%市场份额,2022年新兴龙头加速追赶。随着单晶拉晶技术逐渐成熟,晶 科能源、晶澳科技等一体化组件厂开始向上游扩产,后起之秀上机数控、双良节能、京运通等也进入这个 行业,2021-2022年新增产能集中释放,硅片竞争趋于激烈,非硅成本成为竞争核心。


2.3 2021年硅片价格跟涨,目前开始回落


历史上看,硅片的价格波动主要取决于两个方面:一个是硅料的成本;另一个是,非硅的成本,主要取决于 技术的进步。年后随着上游多晶硅价格持续上涨,国内单晶硅片厂商紧随其后跟涨价格。


2.4 大尺寸和薄片化趋势明确,龙头盈利能力强劲

大尺寸带来全产业链降本提效,硅片龙头率先调整产能及出货。大尺寸趋势明确,硅片龙头新增产能均兼 容182与210,我们预计2021、2022年底硅片大尺寸产能220GW、528GW,因此硅片端不会成为制约大 尺寸发展的瓶颈。

First, silicon: new production capacity has been released, profitability is still strong  

 

 

 

1.1 In 2022, new production capacity will be released successively, and the effective supply will exceed 280GW  

 

 

 

In the first half of 2022, the new capacity will be released, corresponding to the total silicon supply of 280GW+ : no new capacity will be released in 2021. Under the condition that the number of 158 silicon chips (chips) is 68 for 1kg, the conversion efficiency is 23%, and the single watt of silicon consumes 3G /W, we calculate that the total silicon supply is 190GW (there may be some loss in actual production).  

 

 

 

1.2 Five oligopoly pattern, Tongwei is expected to take the lead in breaking through  

 

 

 

In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the price of silicon materials continued to fall, and small manufacturers gradually withdrew from the competition due to serious losses. The industry formed an oligopoly pattern of five companies: GCL-Poly, Tongwei, Xinte, Daall-New Energy and Orient Hope.   Tongwei silicon material production expansion pace is leading the industry, putting into production capacity of 80,000 tons by the end of 2021, and signing long orders with downstream silicon chip giant Longji and integrated manufacturer Trina Solar to guarantee sales. We expect that Tongwei will take the lead in breaking out of the market by 2022, with a market share of nearly 30%.  

 

 

 

1.3 silicon material rose to a new 10-year high, is expected to 2022 average annual price of about 150,000  

 

 

 

In 2022, the price will fall rationally after the silicon supply is sufficient. We expect the average annual price of about 150,000 in 2022:  Since 2020Q3, silicon material price rise cycle opened, supply and demand continue to be in short supply, the year after the price continues to rise, in November 2021 has reached 270,000 yuan/ton, silicon material recently rose to a new high in nearly 10 years, leading Tongwei continued to benefit, the whole year 2021 silicon material supply and demand tight balance, the price to maintain high.  

 

 

 

1.4 Particle silicon is gradually verified downstream and mass production begins  

 

 

 

Advantages of granular silicon: 1) Production energy consumption is greatly reduced: the energy consumption is 20 KWH, which is 2/3 lower than that of Siemens method, and the cost per ton is saved by 9,000 yuan. If carbon tax is considered in the future, the advantages will be greater;   2) Decrease in investment per unit: 700 million yuan per ten thousand tons (1 billion yuan for Siemens method), saving 0.15 million yuan in depreciation cost per ton;  3) Continuous production of equipment, and subsequent CCZ can be achieved with silicon wafer factory to improve production efficiency.  

 

 

 

Second, silicon chip: in 2022, the competition is fierce, leading profit resilience  

 

 

 

2.1 Industry overcapacity, we expect intense competition in 2022, wafer profitability downward  

 

 

 

High profitability promotes large expansion of production, and the problem of overcapacity gradually emerges: Influenced by the dual impact of strong prices and falling costs, the profitability of silicon wafers gradually rises, which promotes the industry to expand production substantially.   From the end of 2019 to 2021, monocrystalline silicon wafers entered a new round of production capacity cycle. We calculate that the silicon wafers capacity of leading enterprises reached 342GW and 484.5GW by the end of 2022.  

 

 

 

2.2 Silicon chip double leading pattern, emerging leading speed up to catch up  

 

 

 

The duopoly is expected to hold 61% of the market share in 2021, with emerging leaders accelerating their catch-up in 2022.  With the gradual maturity of the single crystal pulling technology, JinkoSolar, JA and other integrated component plants began to expand their production upstream, and rising stars such as CNC, Shuangliang Energy Saving and Beijing Yuntong also entered the industry. In 2021-2022, the new production capacity was released in a concentrated way, and the silicon chip competition became more intense, and the non-silicon cost became the core of the competition.  

 

 

 

2.3 In 2021, the price of silicon wafers followed the rise, and now it starts to fall  

 

 

 

Historically, the price of silicon wafers has fluctuated based on two things: the cost of silicon;  The other is that the cost of non-silicon depends largely on technological advances.  After the upstream polysilicon prices continued to rise, the domestic monocrystalline silicon chip manufacturers followed with price increases.  

 

 

 

2.4 The trend of large size and lamination is clear, leading to strong profitability  

 

Large size brings the whole industry chain to reduce costs and improve efficiency, silicon leading to take the lead in adjusting capacity and shipment.  The trend of large size is clear. The leading new capacity of silicon chip is both 182 and 210. We expect that the large capacity of silicon chip is 220GW and 528GW at the end of 2021 and 2022, so the silicon chip end will not become the bottleneck restricting the development of large size.  

 

 

 

3. Battery: Profit will be gradually repaired in 2022, and new technologies will start to break the game  

 

 

 

3.1 Demand for large-size batteries increases. Structural opportunities in 2022  

 

 

 

PERC has relatively excess capacity, but the size earnings are clearly differentiated, which brings structural opportunities.  PERC's capacity expanded rapidly to over 390GW by the end of 2022, of which the 182&210 large-size capacity is 270GW, accounting for about 70%, in a tight balance.  

 

 

 

3.2 Rapid increase in concentration, professional manufacturers emerged  

 

 

 

In 2022, the concentration of battery chip pattern rapidly increased, and it was divided into two camps: specialization and integration.  In 2021, the concentration of CR6 exceeded 80%. Among the top six, Tongwei and Aixu are professional battery factories, leading the second and third tier manufacturers in efficiency and cost.  The other four JA, Jinko, TRW, and Longji are integrated manufacturers, expanding production of batteries to complement the integrated production capacity.  

 

 

 

3.3 Obvious size differentiation, profitable repair can be expected  

 

 

 

Both ends of the battery are at the bottom of the compression profit position, the high demand in 2022 profit repair can be expected.  In 2021, silicon materials and silicon wafers continued to rise in price, but the battery wafers could not keep up with the rise due to poor competition pattern and short inventory cycle. At the same time, downstream demand fed back to the battery wafers, making the battery squeezed at both ends. In 2021, Q1-3 battery wafers broke even in first-tier enterprises, while second-tier enterprises suffered losses, and their profitability declined.  

 

 

 

3.4 In 2022, TOPCon will take the lead and HJT industrialization will be achieved soon  

 

 

 

Battery technology more bloom, TOPCon has arrived!  The efficiency of PERC has reached its peak, and the emergence of high-efficiency new battery technology has brought new industrial opportunities. In 2020, the mass production conversion efficiency of new technologies HJT and TOPCon has reached 23.5-25.5%, which is still improving.  For TOPCon, 16GW of JinkoSolar, 10GW of Longi, 8GW of Trina Solar and other TOPCon mass production lines are scheduled to be launched in 2022.  

 

 

 

Four, components: the leading concentration continues to improve, the full benefit of double rise  

 

 

 

4.1 General trend of integration, the matching rate of each link is gradually increased  

 

 

 

The rapid increase of component concentration leads to an increase in the matching rate of each link: due to low investment per unit capacity, slow technological change and mainly physical packaging in component link, the industry's total capacity is relatively excess.  

 

 

 

4.2 The concentration increased rapidly, and the CR5 of components shipped reached 85%  

 

 

 

We expect the top five to account for 85% of shipments in 2022.  In recent years, the concentration of the component industry has increased rapidly. Longji, Jinko and JA, with their brand advantages and well-integrated industrial chain layout, are leading the industry.  In 2021 CR4 was around 88%, and in 2022 we expect CR5 shipment concentration to be around 85%.  

 

 

 

4.3 Profit gradually out of the bottom, optimistic 2022 volume and profit double rise  

 

 

 

Earnings gradually out of the bottom, bullish on 2022 single watt earnings repair.  From the main components leading single tile profit, in the case of rising silicon prices, 2021Q1 is mainly due to the domestic low price of more orders, profits are basically at the bottom, followed by 2021Q1 low price single delivery, glass price to hedge part of the silicon price, 2021Q2 manufacturers profit repair;  2021Q3 demand starting volume, component manufacturers scheduling increased compared to the previous quarter superposition large size shipment account for the increase in profit beyond our expectations.  

 

 

 

4.4 182&210 General trend is clear, BIPV becomes the growth highlight  

 

 

 

182&210 into the big trend in 2021, leading manufacturers shipping gradually to 182&210 transfer: leading manufacturers shipping gradually to large size transfer, 2021 large size shipment is guaranteed, we expect the industry in 2022 large size accounts for 60%+, leading up to 70%+.  

 

 

 

Five, inverter: export acceleration, high energy storage, leading rise  

 

 

 

5.1 Inverter export substitution continues and profitability structure improves  

 

 

 

Domestic enterprises are accelerating to go abroad: We split the overseas market, domestic inverter products are good and the price is low. After establishing the channel brand, the price strategy will quickly seize the market. In 2020, the global market share of Chinese enterprises will account for about 70% (according to the shipment volume), which will be increased to more than 85% in the next 3-5 years.  

 

 

 

5.2 Domestic leader stands out, Sunshine dragon one position is stable  

 

 

 

Global inverters with double heads in 2021.  From the 2021 pattern, Sunshine Power (31.3%), Huawei (23.1%) double leading pattern, other domestic inverter manufacturers such as Jinlang, Goodway, GureWatt share is still small.  U Accelerated overseas substitution, domestic leaders stand out: domestic enterprises continued to benefit in 2021  

 

 

 

5.3 High growth rate of distributed market, consumption attribute of inverters, and higher profit  

 

 

 

Distributed markets are more expensive and profitable.  From the perspective of unit price, the unit price of household inverter is much higher than that of commercial and industrial inverter. The reason is that the centralized inverter is more used in centralized power stations, and the 2B mode has a low unit price, and the distributed market is more for individual consumers.  

 

 

 

5.4 Chip shortage in recent two years, price rise transmission cost pressure  

 

 

 

The inverter production cost is mainly direct materials, accounting for 93% : in 2020, the manufacturing cost accounts for 4%, labor accounts for 3%, and direct materials account for 93% of the production cost, including 24.8% for structural parts, 12.8% for inductors, 10.6% for semiconductor devices, 10% for photovoltaic system components, and 8.4% for capacitors.  

 

 

 

5.5 Energy storage inverter is in great demand and has become a new growth point  

 

 

 

In 2022, the PCS cost of energy storage inverters accounted for about 11.3% of the energy storage system.  The economic inflection point of energy storage has reached, the trillion blue ocean market space is vast, and a number of domestic and foreign support policies have been implemented. It is expected that the global new energy storage installed capacity will reach 131GW/318GWh by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 79% from 2021-2025. 



三、电池:2022年盈利逐步修复,新技术开始破局


3.1 大尺寸电池需求提升,2022年看结构性机会


PERC产能相对过剩,但尺寸盈利分化明显,带来结构性机会。PERC产能迅速扩张,到2022年底超390GW, 其中182&210大尺寸产能为270GW,占比约70%,处于紧平衡状态。


3.2 集中度迅速提升,专业化厂商显露头角


2022年电池片格局集中度迅速提升,分为专业化和一体化两大阵营。2021年CR6集中度超过80%,前6名 中,通威股份、爱旭股份是专业电池厂,效率、成本领先二三线厂商;其余4家晶澳、晶科、天合、隆基为 一体化厂商,扩产电池片补齐一体化产能。 


3.3 尺寸分化明显,盈利修复可期


电池两头受压盈利处于底部位置,2022年需求高增盈利修复可期。2021年硅料、硅片持续涨价,但电池片 因竞争格局差且库存周期短,无法跟涨,同时下游需求反馈到电池片,使得电池处于两头受挤压的局面, 2021年Q1-3电池片一线企业盈亏平衡,二线企业亏损,盈利能力均有所下降。


3.4 2022年TOPCon率先发力,HJT产业化在即


电池技术多点开花,TOPCon已至!PERC效率已达顶点,高效率新电池技术的出现带来了新的产业机会, 2020年新技术HJT、TOPCon量产转换效率已能做到23.5-25.5%,仍在不断提升。TOPCon方面,晶科能 源16GW、隆基股份10GW、天合光能8GW等TOPcon量产线均计划在2022年落地。


四、组件:龙头集中度继续提升,充分受益量利双升


4.1 一体化大趋势,各环节配套率逐步提升


组件集中度迅速提升,带动各环节配套率提升:组件环节由于单位产能投资低、技术变化缓慢且主要为物理 封装,行业总产能相对过剩。


4.2 集中度迅速提升,组件出货CR5达85%


我们预计2022年前五龙头出货占比达85%。近年来组件行业集中度迅速提升,品牌优势、产业链一体化布 局较为完善的隆基、晶科、晶澳走在行业前列。2021年CR4为88%左右,2022年我们预计CR5出货集中度 为85%左右。


4.3 盈利逐步走出底部,看好2022年量利双升


盈利逐步走出底部,看好2022年单瓦盈利修复。从主要组件龙头单瓦盈利来看,在硅料价格不断上涨的 情况下,2021Q1主要由于国内低价单较多,盈利基本处于底部,后续随着2021Q1低价单交付,玻璃降 价对冲部分硅料涨价,2021Q2厂商盈利有所修复;2021Q3需求起量,组件厂商排产环比有所提升叠加 大尺寸出货占比提升盈利超我们预期。


4.4 182&210大趋势明确,BIPV成增长亮点


182&210成2021年大趋势,龙头厂商出货逐渐向182&210转移:龙头厂商出货逐渐向大尺寸转移,2021 年大尺寸出货有保障,我们2022年预计行业大尺寸占比60%+,龙头达70%+。


五、逆变器:出口加速,储能高增,龙头崛起


5.1 逆变器出口替代持续,盈利结构改善


国内企业加速出海:我们拆分海外市场来看,国内逆变器产品好价格低,在建立起渠道品牌后,通过价格策 略迅速抢占市场,2020年全球市场份额中国内企业占比70%左右(按出货量),未来3-5年或将提升至 85%以上。


5.2 国产龙头脱颖而出,阳光龙一地位稳固


2021年全球逆变器双龙头格局。从2021年格局来看,阳光电源(31.3%)、华为(23.1%)双龙头格局, 国内其他逆变器厂商如锦浪、固德威、古瑞瓦特份额仍较小。u 海外加速替代,国产龙头脱颖而出:2021年国内企业继续受益


5.3 分布式市场高增速,逆变器具备消费属性,盈利更高


分布式市场单价更高、盈利更好。从单价看,户用逆变器单价远高于商业和工业,原因在于集中式逆变器 更多应用于集中电站,2B模式低单价,分布式市场更多为个人消费者。


5.4 近两年芯片短缺,价格上涨传导成本压力


逆变器生产成本主要是直接材料,占比达到93%:2020年制造费用占4%,人工占3%,生产成本中直接材 料占93%,其中结构件占24.8%,电感占12.8%,半导体器件占10.6%,光伏系统组件占10%,电容占8.4%。


5.5 储能逆变器需求旺盛,成为新的业绩增长点


2022年储能逆变器PCS成本约占储能系统11.3%。储能经济性拐点已至,万亿蓝海市场空间广阔,且目前国 内外多项支持政策密集落地,预计到2025年全球新增储能装机达到131GW/318GWh,2021-2025年 复合增速为79%。

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