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隆基股份市值蒸发千亿!值得抄底吗?
返回列表 来源: 蓝经财经观察 发布日期: 2021.03.28 浏览次数:

       春节后,A股进入了一场全面大回调中,股价连日暴跌。春节前基金抱团的各种龙头股,在这场回调中跌得最快,其中就包括光伏行业的龙头股— 隆基股份。股价跌停,蒸发千亿自2月28日开始,隆基股份就开始回调,跌多涨少,尤其是最近几天下跌更是厉害。 
3月8日,隆基股份直接跌停,3月9日继续下跌6.15%,截止3月10日收盘,隆基股份收盘价位85元每股,相比最高点125元每股,已经跌去了32%。以最新价计算,相比最高点时的股价,隆基股份已经蒸发掉了高达1500多亿元的市值!隆基股份为什么连日暴跌甚至单日跌停? 
从板块来看,整个光伏板块都表现颓势,光伏原材料的价格有关。数据显示,从上周开始,光伏原材料价格上涨明显。 
其中,国内单晶复投料成交均价为110.8元每千克,环比上涨4.23%;单晶致密料成交均价为108元每千克,环比上涨4.45%;单晶菜花料成交均价为105.3元每千克,环比上涨4.88%;多晶用料成交均价为63.3元每千克,环比上涨8.58%。原材料涨价,导致成本上升,隆基股份也只能宣布其硅片产品提价,涨幅9%左右!产品价格上涨,对整个光伏行业都是大利空,隆基股份作为光伏行业当之无愧的龙头,股价受影响下跌也就在情理之中了,但仍不至于到达跌停的程度。 而另一重影响的因素,便是当前的市场情绪了!最近市场上的基金踩踏仍在继续发酵中,而隆基股份恰巧就是基金抱团股中一员。数据显示,隆基股份被大量基金重仓持有,是偏股基金重仓股。其中,广发基金管理有限公司持有的隆基股份股票占比达到2.49%!作为光伏行业的龙头股,被基金公司大量重仓持有也无可厚非。但是,这种抱团行为并不可持续。由于市场情绪反转后,基金赎回潮出现,基金公司为了应对不得不清仓部分权重股,这也加剧了隆基股份的下跌,导致3月8日直接跌停。但是,隆基股份的暴跌恐怕难以改变它的优势,大资本对隆基股份的预期依然是良好的,比如隆基股份最近一次股权大变动,就引进了著名的高瓴资本。
隆基股份的优势2020年12月20日,高瓴资本以158亿元的的价格受让了隆基股份创始人之一李春安手中持有的6%公司股份,一举成为了隆基股份第二大股东。受此消息影响,隆基股份连日暴涨,市盈率达到40倍以上,给隆基股份创造了大量泡沫。而今,市场回调,高瓴资本进入推高的股价仿佛走了一圈又回来了。高瓴资本入股的价格在70元左右每股,而目前市场价已经跌回到85元每股,接近高瓴的成本价位。高瓴资本的入股,也是因为看好隆基股份的未来发展。隆基股份作为光伏行业龙头,其各方面表现都非常亮眼。数据显示,隆基股份近三年的营业收入和净利润都增长非常快,2020年的盈利增速依然能达到70%,净利润达到80亿元!如此高的净利润增速是各个行业内都很罕见的,如果这个增速能够保持下去将是非常可怕的。归根结底,隆基股份是在战略上完胜了所有的同行,才有了今天这般出色的表现。成立于2000年的隆基股份,主营业务是多晶硅片生产。
 
      当时市场上有单晶硅片和多晶硅片两种主要生产方向,多晶硅片的生产成本相对单晶硅片低,绝大多数的光伏企业都选择了较为成熟的多晶硅片,对单晶硅片持观望态度。但是,隆基股份创始人团队却在实验中发现,未来单晶硅片的生产成本将会大幅度下降,成为光伏行业的主流。因此,2006年,隆基股份毫不犹豫的将公司定位转变为单晶硅片生产,逆市场潮流前进。事实果真团队所料,经过多年的发展,单晶硅片的生产成本得到了大幅度下降。2012年,隆基股份生产多晶硅片的成本约为2.12元每片,2019年,这个数据已经下降到了0.74元每片。随着成本下降以及隆基股份的不断扩张,公司的营收和净利润不断上涨,加上入局早,隆基股份逐步扩张成为光伏行业的龙头企业,营业收入和净利润呈现爆发式的增长。
高瓴资本的进入,代表着张磊对隆基股份持乐观态度,未来还有很大的发展空间。两年的限售期未到,高瓴的股权投资依然处于盈利状态,两年后的价格还未可知。3月10日,A股已经连续三根大阴线,连跌三天后,市场已经开始出现“抄底”之声了!毕竟暴跌是抄底的好机会,市场上抄底之声此起彼伏的时候,说明已经有资金开始进入了。那么,隆基股份这时候值得抄底吗?

After the Spring Festival, A shares entered A comprehensive pullback, stock prices have plummeted for days.Before the Spring Festival fund group of leading stocks, in the pullback fell the fastest, including the photovoltaic industry leading stocks - Longji shares. Since Feb. 28, Longji shares have been in a correction, falling more or less, especially in the last few days, the decline is more severe.

On March 8, Longji shares fell by the limit, and on March 9, they continued to drop by 6.15%. By the close of the market on March 10, Longji shares closed at 85 yuan per share, down 32% from the peak of 125 yuan per share. Calculated at the latest price, compared to the peak of the stock price, Longji shares have evaporated as high as more than 150 billion yuan of market value!Longji shares why the day after day slump or even a single day limit?

From the plate point of view, the whole photovoltaic plate is declining, the price of photovoltaic raw materials.Data show that from last week, the price of photovoltaic raw materials rose significantly.

Among them, the average transaction price of domestic single crystal refeed was 110.8 yuan per kg, up 4.23% month-on-month;The average transaction price of single crystal compact material was 108 yuan per kg, up 4.45% month-on-month; Single crystal cauliflower material transaction average price of 105.3 yuan per kg, up 4.88%;The average price of polycrystalline materials was 63.3 yuan per kg, up 8.58% month-on-month. Raw material prices, resulting in rising costs, Longji shares can only announce its silicon wafer product price, up about 9%!Product prices rise, the whole photovoltaic industry is bearish, Longji shares as a well-deserved leader in the photovoltaic industry, the stock price is affected by the fall is reasonable, but still not to reach the extent of the limit. The other factor that affects the market is the current mood.The recent market fund stampede is still continuing to ferment, and Longji shares happen to be a member of the fund group. Data show that Longji shares are a large number of fund heavy warehouse holdings, is a partial stock fund heavy warehouse stocks.Among them, Guangfa Fund Management Co., Ltd. holds the share of Longji shares accounted for 2.49%! As the leading stock of the photovoltaic industry, a large number of fund companies are holding heavy warehouse is understandable. But this kind of solidarity is not sustainable. Due to the reversal of market sentiment, the fund redemption wave appeared, in order to deal with the fund companies had to clear part of the weighted stocks, which also exacerbated the decline of Longji shares, leading to a direct drop in the limit on March 8.However, the collapse of Longji shares is probably difficult to change its advantages. Big capital's expectation of Longji shares is still good. For example, Longji shares introduced the famous Hillhouse capital in the latest major equity change.

On December 20, 2020, Hillhouse Capital transferred 6% of the company's shares held by Li Chun 'an, one of the founders of Longji, at a price of 15.8 billion yuan, and became the second largest shareholder of Longji. Affected by this news, Longji shares skyrocketed for days, the price-earnings ratio reached more than 40 times, creating a large number of bubbles to Longji shares. Now, the market has pulled back, and Hillhouse's entry to push up the share price seems to have come full circle and come back. The investment price of Hillhouse Capital is around 70 yuan per share, while the current market price has fallen back to 85 yuan per share, which is close to the cost price of Hillhouse Capital. Hillhouse Capital's investment is also because it is optimistic about the future development of Longji shares.Longji shares as a leader in the photovoltaic industry, its performance in all aspects is very bright. Data show that the operating income and net profit of Longji shares in the past three years have grown very fast, and the profit growth rate in 2020 can still reach 70%, and the net profit reaches 8 billion yuan! Such a high net profit growth rate is very rare in any industry, if this growth rate can be maintained will be very terrible.In the final analysis, Longji shares are in the strategic victory over all the peers, just have today's excellent performance. Founded in 2000, Longji shares, the main business is the production of polysilicon wafers.

At that time, there were two main production directions in the market: monocrystalline silicon wafer and polycrystalline silicon wafer. The production cost of polycrystalline silicon wafer was lower than that of monocrystalline silicon wafer. The vast majority of photovoltaic enterprises chose relatively mature polycrystalline silicon wafer and took a wait-and-see attitude to monocrystalline silicon wafer. However, the founder team of Longji shares has found in the experiment that the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers in the future will be greatly reduced and become the mainstream of the photovoltaic industry.Therefore, in 2006, Longji shares did not hesitate to change the company's positioning into monocrystalline silicon wafer production, against the trend of the market. As the team expected, after years of development, the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers has been greatly reduced.In 2012, Lonji's cost of producing polysilicon wafers was about 2.12 yuan per wafer. In 2019, this figure has dropped to 0.74 yuan per wafer. With the decrease of costs and the continuous expansion of Longji shares, the company's revenue and net profit keep rising. With the early entry, Longji shares gradually expanded to become the leading enterprise in the photovoltaic industry, and its operating income and net profit showed explosive growth.

The entry of Hillhouse Capital represents Zhang Lei's optimistic attitude towards Longji shares, which still has great development space in the future. Hillhouse's equity investment is still profitable, and the price after two years is not yet known.On March 10, A has been three consecutive big Yin line, even fell three days later, the market has begun to appear "bottom copy" the sound! After all, the slump is a good opportunity to bottom, bottom on the market when the voice of the rise and fall, that has begun to enter the capital.So, Longji shares at this time is worth bottom-hunting?


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