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趋势&陷阱:隆基股份入局氢能源
返回列表 来源: 发布日期: 2021.07.01 浏览次数:

     3月16日,隆基股份战略管理中心总经理蒋东宇在北京召开的第六届中国能源发展与创新论坛上指出,未来氢能需求将十分可观,绿氢将推动光伏产业快速增长。
3月31日,西安隆基氢能科技有限公司成立,注册资本3亿元,李振国担任其董事长、总经理,朱雀投资董事长李华轮担任董事。
这一系列操作也对外释放着隆基股份在从“光伏+”发展模式走向“光伏+氢能”模式的信号。
 是趋势  还是陷阱 ?
公开信息显示西安隆基氢能科技经营范围了包括气体、液体分离及纯净设备制造,结合前期的行动,转型的信号一经释放,资金立刻做出反应,一头扎向了氢能源。
4月6日,在三大股指走低的背景下,同花顺氢能源概念板块指数逆势收涨5.23%,报1370.19点,盘中创一年以来的新高。87只成分股中超九成上涨,其中包括厚普股份、首航高科、时代新材、新天绿能、凯美特气、远和气体在内的18只个股涨停。另有11只个股涨幅超6%。
但实质上,很多人都不大了解氢能源,又或者不大了解氢能源与太阳能光伏的关系。
面子上来说,氢能源和光伏能源都是碳中和战略下新能源的主要部分,于是氢能源也能被称为我国新能源战略的一大重要环节。
里子上来说,近10年来陆上风电和光伏发电项目单位千瓦平均造价分别下降30%和75%左右,而利用光伏制氢,一旦技术成熟,制氢需求反哺光伏,从而拉动光伏装机需求,便可以形成了一个良性的循环。
而我国在绿氢产业的发展上还处于初级阶段,氢燃料电池在关键技术上更存在着阻碍,另一方面,氢能源在制造业的应用也愈加广泛,相比于传统能源的优势也愈为明显。这样一个供需端羁绊的行业,无论是对于实体企业还是资本市场,无疑都存在着巨大的发展空间。
现在的光伏行业,有点像养猪行业。
很尴尬,但不得不提的是,经过了去年一年的炒作,整个光伏板块今年业绩压力都很大。
这样一想,隆基进军氢能源,好像又变得不太那么"单纯"了。
其一,就目前隆基的股价来说,现在这个位置也挺危险的,如果利润增速不符合预期的话,这个股价还有可能会继续下跌。
其二,隆基这几年,大规模的扩张,产能扩的速度巨大,他的负债率应该很高。
其三,也是致命的问题,隆基的180的硅片规格面临着被中环股份等用210的规格围剿的问题。
综合以上这几个可能的压力,公司可能乱了阵脚,而为了继续保持市场资本对他的关注度,他寻求一个新的方向,那就是做氢燃料电池,但实际上氢能源电池的成本巨大,这个本身来说是一个更大的挑战,但也有可能他只是为了炒个热度,来引起资本市场的关注,维护住公司目前的市场地位。
但再仔细想一下,隆基这么大的巨头,研发实力超强,绝对不会贸然进入一个新的领域。这次高调进入氢能源,意图在太阳能光伏之外开辟一个新的竞争赛道,实现超纬度的领先发展。
这样的龙头公司,我宁愿相信他们做的决策是对的,而不是轻率地认为他们是乱了阵脚,只是为了维护公司的资本市场地位和股价,宁愿相信他们是基于严格的科学认证做出的前瞻性决策。

On March 16, Jiang Dongyu, general manager of Longi Strategic Management Center, pointed out at the 6th China Energy Development and Innovation Forum held in Beijing that the future hydrogen energy demand will be very considerable, and green hydrogen will promote the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry.

On March 31, Xi 'an Longji Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 300 million yuan. Li Zhenguo served as its chairman and general manager, and Li Hua, chairman of Zhuque Investment, served as the director.

This series of operations also released a signal that Longi shares is moving from the "photovoltaic +" development mode to the "photovoltaic + hydrogen energy" mode.

A trend or a trap?

The public information shows that the business scope of Xi 'an Longji Hydrogen Technology includes the manufacturing of gas and liquid separation and purification equipment. Combined with the previous actions, the capital immediately responded to the signal of transformation and plunged into hydrogen energy.

On April 6, against the background of the decline of the three major stock indexes, the Flush Hydrogen Energy Concept Sector Index rose 5.23% to 1370.19 points, hitting a one-year high in the intraday. More than 90 percent of the 87 constituent stocks rose, including 18 stocks, including Houpu, Shouhang Hi-Tech, Times New Material, New Sky Green Energy, Kemet Gas and Yuanhe Gas, which rose by the daily limit. Another 11 stocks rose more than 6%.

But essentially, a lot of people don't know much about hydrogen energy, or how it relates to solar photovoltaic.

On the face of it, hydrogen energy and photovoltaic energy are both major parts of the new energy under the carbon neutral strategy, so hydrogen energy can also be called an important link of China's new energy strategy.

In the past 10 years, the average cost per kilowatt of onshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects has decreased by about 30% and 75% respectively. Once the technology is mature, the demand for hydrogen production by photovoltaic power generation will feed back the demand for photovoltaic power generation, thus driving the demand for photovoltaic installed power generation, and a virtuous cycle can be formed.

However, the development of green hydrogen industry in China is still in the primary stage, and hydrogen fuel cell has more obstacles in the key technologies. On the other hand, hydrogen energy has been widely used in the manufacturing industry, and its advantages over traditional energy are becoming more and more obvious. Such an industry fettered by supply and demand, no matter for the entity enterprises or the capital market, there is no doubt that there is a huge space for development.

Now the photovoltaic industry is a bit like the pig industry.

Very embarrassing, but have to mention that, after last year's hype, the whole photovoltaic plate performance pressure is very big this year.

Think of it this way, Longi into hydrogen energy, seems to become not so "pure".

For one thing, Longi's share price is in a precarious position, and it could fall further if earnings growth doesn't meet expectations.

Second, in recent years, Longji has been expanding on a large scale and its production capacity is expanding at a huge speed, so its debt ratio should be very high.

Thirdly, it is also a fatal problem. Longi's 180 silicon wafer specifications are facing the problem of being suppressed by Magnetics Holdings with 210 specifications.

All of this a few possible pressure, the company may be wrong, and to continue to maintain the capital market attention to him, he sought a new direction, that is to do the hydrogen fuel cells, but in fact, the cost of hydrogen energy cells is huge, this itself is a bigger challenge, but it is also possible that he just to fry a heat, to cause the attention of capital markets, Maintain the company's current market position.

But think about it again, Longji is such a big giant, research and development strength is super strong, will not rashly enter a new field. This high-profile entry into hydrogen energy, the intention is to open up a new competitive track outside solar photovoltaic, to achieve the leading development of ultra-latitude.

Such leading companies, I would rather believe that they are making the right decisions, rather than flippant thinking that they are making the wrong decisions to protect the company's capital market position and stock price, rather than believing that they are making forward-looking decisions based on rigorous scientific certification.


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