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碳交易启动在即,关注这个方向!
返回列表 来源: 发布日期: 2021.10.05 浏览次数:

1、今天半导体板块受卓胜微影响,大跌,主要是卓胜微二季度业绩未超市场预期。
远期来看,卓胜微的成长驱动力来自于射频前端产品的技术突破和放量,但是公司需要面临整体业绩增速下滑和当前高估值的匹配问题。
一、碳交易启动
7月14日,将举行国务院政策例行吹风会,介绍启动 全国碳排放权交易市场上线交易有关情况。结合全国碳市场下一步扩大覆盖范围的需要,生态环境部已组织开展了相关行业企业的碳排放数据报告与核查工作,除发电行业以外,还涵盖了建材、有色、钢铁、石化、化工、造纸、航空等。
目前来看,全国碳排放权交易市场正式上线在即,相关行业迎来强预期。
目前来看,碳交易上线后,有3个方向有望受益:
1)碳检测,比如谱尼测试、雪迪龙等
2)能源,比如中闽能源、三峡能源、隆基股份、明阳智能、天合光能、长源电力等
3)碳交易相关的,比如岳阳林纸、福建金森等
二、磷矿石涨价
新能源汽车行业的高景气度,带动了锂电中游景气度高企,而这是最近一个月以来锂电强势上涨的主要原因。
而随着电解液、隔膜相关标的的大涨,市场开始挖掘上游的相关分支。
近日,磷矿石主流地区参考均价在550元/吨附近,与6月1日(磷矿石参考均价510元/吨)价格相比,均价上调40元/吨,涨幅7.84%。
从市场信息了解来看,磷矿石供给目前较紧张,市场价格有望维持高位。
随着磷酸铁锂重回锂电正极材料主流,预期至2025年国内需求将超100万吨,且远期市场仍将维持较高增速增长。在此背景下,需求延“磷酸铁锂-磷酸铁-高纯磷酸和工业一铵-黄磷及磷肥-磷矿石”产业链向上游传导。
磷矿石相关标的有望受益,比如天原股份、司尔特等
三、玻璃
玻璃期货突破3000大关,再创历史新高,下半年是玻璃传统的旺季,价格有望持续走强。
从产能来看,行业产能刚性,调节余地小,退出成本高,投产到结束要8-10年。今年21年到明年上半年产能达峰,产能置换政策想新增产能可能性为0,在碳中和大背景下,玻璃行业产能将维持相对稳定。
从行业集中度来看,行业集中度低,CR10 50-55%,十四五规划行业集中度达到75%以上。
从库存来看,上周13个主要省份浮法玻璃库存环比下降3%至2000万重量箱,扭转了自5月下旬以来库存连续六周增加的趋势。
这是目前淡季背景下的库存情况,从目前行业形势来看,下半年,玻璃供需偏紧,相关标的有望受益,比如旗滨集团、南玻A、洛阳玻璃、亚玛顿、福莱特等
四、点评
1、广联达
实现归属上市公司股东的净利润2.3亿元-3亿元,比去年同期增长76.89%-130.72%。公司业绩超预期。
公司营收保持快速增长,数字造价业务云转型全面覆盖,新老区域收入均实现增长。公司数字造价转型区域覆盖进入中后期,转型带来前期利润波动已过,表观利润逐步恢复。
公司数字造价业务云转型顺利推进,后续或通过增值服务进一步提升用户ARPU值,数字施工业务经过前期调整和积累有望回到快速成长通道,数字设计布局长期成长曲线,整体成长方向清晰,成长路径较为确定,持续增长可期。
2、中闽能源
公司未来5年海上风电规模有望达目前在运8.3倍。
公司专注于风电/光伏/生物质能等新能源发电业务,控股股东为省国资福建投资集团,2020年末在建海上风电11.4万千瓦,投资集团在建/筹建海上风电31.2万/50万千瓦、在建抽蓄电站120万千瓦,并承诺择机进行资产注入。
福建省风力资源优异,公司海风项目资源储备丰富,并且有福建投资集团鼎力支持,看好公司在“十四五”期间海风装机容量有望实现跨越式增长,测算得出2025年以前公司海风规模有望达150.8万千瓦,是2020年末在运海风规模的8.3倍、总装机规模的1.8倍。
3、传长江存储被封杀点评
在国产设备加持下,去美进展已经在55/28nm,也就意味着除了合肥长鑫(19/17nm)+中芯南方(14/10/7nm)是先进制程工艺,其他95%的国内晶圆厂将不受影响,因为几乎所有其他晶圆厂都在55/90/130nm工艺,长江存储在(45-28nm)如果封杀禁令加剧,将会极大刺激国产设备需求和研发进度.
五、个股
1、京东方A
预计2021年半年度归母净利125.00亿元-127.00亿元,同比增长1001%-1018%。上半年,公司成熟产线保持满产满销,LCD主流应用市占率继续保持领先
2、江特电机
预计2021年半年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.75亿元-1.85亿元,同比增长6214.73%-6575.57%。碳酸锂业务外部环境持续向好,下游需求增长,其销售价格同比有较大幅度上涨
3、ST华钰
预计上半年实现净利润6680万元-7200万元,同比增长203.91%至227.57%
4、国轩高科
公司与大众汽车集团签署《关于电池战略合作关系的谅解备忘录》,双方旨在共同致力于建立一个完全清洁能源生态系统,用于生产动力电池电芯和模组。
双方拟合作开发用于在德国萨尔茨吉特生产的三元标准电芯,进一步探讨合作开发磷酸铁锂电芯(“标准电芯磷酸铁锂第一代”)。双方将在欧洲建设零碳排放工厂,并将共同开发欧洲其他潜在的生产基地。双方将在新能源汽车基础设施建设,电池梯次利用和电池回收,JTM、CTP、CTC等先进技术的研发等领域开展合作。
5、龙星化工
预计2021年半年度归母净利1亿元-1.30亿元,同比增长3700.98%-4841.27%。
6、金浦钛业
上修业绩预告,预计上半年盈利1.1亿元-1.15亿元,同比增长1380%-1430%,此前预计增长1105%-1155%
7、新凤鸣
预计上半年实现净利润13亿元-13.5亿元,同比增长549%-574%
8、西藏珠峰
预计上半年实现净利润3.9亿元-4.3亿元,同比增加225.05%-258.39%
9、电连技术
预计2021年半年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润18250万元-19250万元,同比增长113.52%-125.22%。
10、兔宝宝
预计上半年盈利2.9亿元-3.3亿元,同比增长577%-671%。


1. Today, the semiconductor sector fell sharply under the influence of Zw, mainly because the performance of ZW in the second quarter did not exceed market expectations.

In the long term, the growth driving force of Zw comes from the technological breakthrough and volume increase of rf front-end products, but the company needs to face the matching problem of the overall growth rate decline and the current high valuation.

First, carbon trading started

On July 14, a regular policy briefing of The State Council will be held to introduce the launch of the national carbon emission trading market.

To meet the needs of expanding the coverage of the national carbon market, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has organized the reporting and verification of carbon emission data of enterprises in related industries, including building materials, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, petrochemicals, chemical industry, paper making, aviation, etc.

At present, the official launch of the national carbon emission trading market is just around the corner, and the related industries have welcomed strong expectations.

At present, carbon trading is expected to benefit in three directions:

1) Carbon detection, such as Penny test, Sidelong, etc

2) Energy, such as Zhongmin Energy, Three Gorges Energy, Longji Stock, Mingyang Intelligent, Trina Solar energy, Changyuan Electric Power, etc

3) Related to carbon trading, such as Yueyang Lin Paper, Fujian Kinson, etc

Second, the price of phosphate ore

The high economic performance of the new energy vehicle industry has led to the high economic performance of the mid-stream lithium battery industry, which is the main reason for the strong growth of lithium battery industry in the last month.

With the rise of electrolyte and diaphragm related targets, the market began to dig upstream related branches.

Recently, the average reference price of phosphate ore in the mainstream area near 550 yuan/ton, compared with June 1 (the average reference price of phosphate ore 510 yuan/ton) price, the average price increased by 40 yuan/ton, or 7.84%.

Understanding from the market information, phosphate ore supply is relatively tight, the market price is expected to maintain high.

With the return of lithium iron phosphate to the mainstream of lithium cathode materials, the domestic demand is expected to exceed 1 million tons by 2025, and the long-term market will maintain a high growth rate. In this context, the demand for "lithium iron phosphate - iron phosphate - high purity phosphoric acid and industrial ammonium - yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer - phosphate ore" to the upstream conduction of the industry chain.

Phosphate ore related targets are expected to benefit, such as Tianyuan shares, Silte, etc

Three, glass

Glass futures breakthrough 3000 mark, another record high, the second half of the glass is the traditional peak season, the price is expected to continue to strengthen.

In terms of production capacity, the industry capacity is rigid, with little room for adjustment and high exit cost. It takes 8-10 years to put into production until the end. From this year 21 to the first half of next year, capacity replacement policy wants to increase the possibility of capacity is 0, in the context of carbon neutrality, glass industry capacity will maintain relatively stable.

From the point of view of industry concentration, the industry concentration is low, CR10 50-55%, the 14th Five-year plan industry concentration is more than 75%.

In terms of inventories, float glass inventories in 13 major provinces fell 3 percent month-on-month to 20 million weight cases last week, reversing a trend of six consecutive weeks of inventory increases since late May.

This is the inventory situation under the current off-season background. From the current industry situation, in the second half of the year, glass supply and demand is tight, and related targets are expected to benefit, such as Qibin Group, South GLASS A, Luoyang Glass, Yamadun, Follett, etc

Fourth, review

1. Glodon

The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 230-300 million yuan, up 76.89%-130.72% compared with the same period last year. The company's performance exceeded expectations.

The company's revenue has maintained rapid growth, the cloud transformation of digital cost business has been fully covered, and the revenue of both new and old regions has achieved growth. The transformation area of the company's digital cost covers the middle and late period. The profit fluctuation brought by the transformation has passed, and the apparent profit gradually recovers.

The cloud transformation of the company's digital cost business is progressing smoothly, and the ARPU value of users is further improved through value-added services. Digital construction business is expected to return to the fast growth channel after early adjustment and accumulation. Digital design layout has a long-term growth curve, and the overall growth direction is clear, the growth path is relatively certain, and the sustainable growth can be expected.

2. Sino-fujian Energy

In the next five years, the scale of offshore wind power is expected to increase by 8.3 times.

The company focuses on wind power/photovoltaic/biomass and other new energy power generation business, and its controlling shareholder is fujian Investment Group, which is state-owned. By the end of 2020, 114,000 kW of offshore wind power is under construction. The investment group has 312,000 kw of offshore wind power under construction / 500,000 kW, and 1.2 million kW of pumping and storage power station under construction.

Fujian province has excellent wind resources, and the company's sea breeze project is rich in resource reserves, and has the full support of Fujian Investment Group. It is expected that the installed sea breeze capacity of the company is expected to achieve a leap-forward growth during the "14th Five-year Plan", and it is estimated that the sea breeze scale of the company is expected to reach 1,508,000 kW before 2025. It is 8.3 times of the sea breeze transport scale and 1.8 times of the total installed capacity at the end of 2020.

3, chuanyangtse storage was blocked comments

With the support of domestic equipment, the progress to the United States has been at 55/28nm, which means that except hefei Changxin (19/17nm) + SMIC South (14/10/7nm) is the advanced process, the other 95% of domestic fabs will not be affected, because almost all other fabs are at 55/90/130nm process. Yangtze Storage at (45-28nm) if the ban intensifies, it will greatly stimulate domestic equipment demand and r&d progress.

Five, the stocks

1. Boe

It is estimated that the half-year net profit of 2021 will be 12.50 billion yuan to 12.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1,001%-1018%. In the first half of the year, the mature production line of the company maintained full production and full sales, and the market share of LCD mainstream applications continued to maintain a leading position

2. Jiangte Motor

The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the half year of 2021 is expected to be 175 million yuan to 185 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6214.73% to 6575.57%. The external environment of lithium carbonate business continues to improve, the downstream demand increases, and its sales price increases significantly compared with last year

3. ST Huayu

Net profit is expected to reach 66.8 million yuan to 72 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 203.91 percent to 227.57 percent year-on-year

4. Guoxuan High-tech

The company and The Volkswagen Group signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Battery Strategic Partnership, aiming to work together to build a fully clean energy ecosystem for the production of power battery cells and modules.

The parties intend to cooperate in the development of a ternary standard cell for production in Salzgit, Germany, and further explore the cooperation in the development of a lithium iron phosphate cell (" Lithium iron phosphate first generation standard cell "). The two sides will build zero-carbon plants in Europe and will jointly develop other potential production sites in Europe.The two sides will cooperate in the infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles, cascade utilization and battery recycling, and research and development of advanced technologies such as JTM, CTP and CTC.

5. Lone Star Chemical

It is expected that the net profit of the half-year return to mother in 2021 will be 100-130 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3700.98%-4841.27%.

6. Kimpo Titanium Industry

Revised results forecast, is expected to profit in the first half of 110 million yuan to 115 million yuan, year-on-year growth of 1380% to 1430%, previously estimated growth of 1105% to 1155%

New Fengming

Net profit is expected to reach 1.3 billion yuan to 1.35 billion yuan in the first half, up 549 percent to 574 percent year on year

8. Mount Everest in Tibet

It is expected to achieve net profit of 390 million yuan to 430 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 225.05%-258.39%

9. Electric connection technology

The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to reach 182.5 million to 192.5 million yuan in the half year of 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 113.52%-125.22%.

10. Baby Rabbits

It is expected to earn 290 million yuan to 330 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 577% to 671% year on year.


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